 Golden State Warriors 2009/2010 |
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posté par Anonyme : | Ca peut paraitre indigeste à 1ère vue mais en fait ça se lit tout seul 
Lancez vous vous verrez, et puis aprés cet article vous saurez tout sur les W's .. ça vaut le coup 
Si infâme venait trainer par ici il pourrait trouver un intérêt à lire au moins le début ..
The Shape Of Things To Come
Authored by Daniel Leroux - November 25, 2009 - 12:06 pm
If I’m lucky, I will get to watch high-level basketball for a long time to come. Regardless, I will never see two quarters more different than the first and second of the Warriors/Blazers game last Friday evening. What made it so astonishing is how good each team looked in their strong quarter compared to how horrible they looked in the other. Of course, much of this juxtaposition serves as an example of (and was caused by) the significance of both Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge to this Blazers squad. Though the Warriors did play much better in the second than the first, much of this improvement was centered around the better opportunities they were getting without Greg Oden in the middle.
Those two quarters also showed the peril of Nate McMillan’s coaching strategy, because taking both guys out and keeping them out gave a Warriors team that was already looking like they had lost the game lots of life. Sometimes, you just need to sweep the leg. It’s possible that McMillan has learned this since then, as he appears to be moving away from it since Friday.
The second half of the game compounded many of the positives of the second quarter, leaving me with a lingering thought: we might be awfully close to a Warriors team of the future that could actually be relevant in terms of the playoffs. Of course, there are still a substantial amount of changes that have to happen for this team to get there, but it is impressive how many of the core pieces are already around.
First and foremost, the Warriors’ guard minutes should go almost exclusively to Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and Anthony Morrow in the long term. They complement each other amazingly well on the offensive end already and each has defensive potential (primarily physical ability for Monta and Morrow, basketball IQ for Curry). That said, I am not comfortable with any of the three guarding small forwards for any meaningful period of time even with those likely defensive improvements, but that is not a major worry since each of the three has more of a guard game considering their ballhandling and court vision. Monta in particular has improved in those departments and certainly has shown the game to be a solid fit offensively with Curry. This has proved effective since the two of them together gives each the freedom to play on and off the ball, which also produces some mismatches since Steph’s off-the-ball movement is very good for a PG thanks to his time at off-guard at Davidson and many points do not have a ton of experience handling a guy running through picks with another guard handling it the whole time. This dynamic helped create looks in the Portland game, especially with Curry running around Steve Blake.
Anthony Randolph is a central part of this future as well. The kid is an amazing combination of athletic ability and unusual on the court skills for a guy his size, but he is still working to put it together. His energy right now is top-notch, yet it also connects with his largest problem at the moment: Randolph is trying to do everything at once. It seems like he is trying so hard to make an impact that he is spreading himself too thin, taking shots out of his range and flying all over the court for blocks so Don Nelson will see why to keep him in. Ideally, what Randolph should be doing is growing his game one element at a time in practice as well as games, while keeping his energy right where it is now. A young player with his athleticism could become a dynamo in one category (my choice for the first element: mid-range shooting) with the right amount of work and coaching. It is also clear that his natural position for the time being is power forward- Anthony can handle the power forwards that end up playing center for some teams reasonably well, but his positioning and strength are not there yet to handle the true big men that separate the playoff teams from the lottery teams. Furthermore, his weak side shot blocking is a major strength and is accentuated at the PF slot.
Of course, one option would be to have him play some minutes at one spot and some at the other, which may be possible when Ronny Turiaf/Andris Biedrins return from their respective injuries. In the Portland game, the Warriors were at their best when Randolph was grabbing boards and initiating the break himself allowing the quick guys to sprint down to the other end, which is he could do reasonably well at either big man spot.
The biggest piece that this Warriors team still needs to add is a number one scorer. Now, let’s make it clear that this piece is the missing one for so many teams in the league, so it’s not a quick fix in any way. Monta Ellis is an excellent player already and will improve with time, but I cannot shake the feeling that he could turn it to another level if there was a player next to him that could draw attention (and the lead perimeter defender) from the opposing team each night. It would also allow enhance Morrow and Curry’s games since neither one of them can be left open- there were a few times on Friday that the Blazers seemed to forget how dangerous Morrow was, leaving him the opportunity to just drill shots. The other major way a number one scorer would change this team is reduce the need for the PF spot to be a scoring spot from mid-range, opening up more latitude for Randolph on the offensive end by reducing the need for him put up shots.
It would also be nice to get a situational perimeter defender (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Arron Afflao are decent examples, or a younger Ime Udoka), a big guard (Shaun Livingston, come on down!) and a long-term Nellie Ball PF to come off the bench (prototype: Ryan Anderson), but each of those is more of a down-the road goal and each could be the focus of a draft pick or two in the next few years. Of course, needs like a #1 scorer are fun to talk about in a vacuum, but the real question is how the Warriors can get one.
In my previous life as a blogger, I wrote a ton about building and re-building teams, particularly those in sticky situations. For those spots, there are two things that management needs to do: First, they need to identify the core of their squad. In my eyes, this group for the Warriors (taking skill and contracts into account) is Ellis, Randolph, Curry, Morrow and Biedrins. This core gives the squad a reliable guard rotation as well as two bigs that can play. Secondly, the team needs to honestly evaluate when the team is going to peak and think about how the rest of the pieces fit with that. In my eyes, the impact for the Warriors as they are today begins in 2011-2012. They can be good before then, but the guys on the books coupled with the development of the core makes that a reasonable time for the team to be one that can at least be in the playoffs.
The other major advantage of that timetable is that there are a few moves management can do to create even more opportunities for then. As has been mentioned in previous columns, there are very few teams that are willing to take on salary for the 2010-2011 season right now. This is happening because many teams want to clear cap for the free agent class, others have financial burdens and need to save money, and some just do not have the salary flexibility to make a deal happen. As such, the Warriors are in a distinctive position because they not only have the ability to eat some short-term salary for 2010- they are also the only team in that group that has expiring contracts that are concentrated enough to do a trade in-season without much trouble.
As such, a creative front office would be going to every team that wants to be a player in the 2010 class that has uncomfortable contracts that expire after the 2010-2011 season as the one-stop shop for cap flexibility. The Mavericks have Erick Dampier’s awesome non-guaranteed deal, but the Warriors have both more immediate relief in Speedy Claxton’s insurance covered contract and the Raja Bell/Devean George veteran expiring combo. In return, this organization should have the leverage to ask for exactly two things: No contracts that extend beyond 2011 and quality young talent that is on the books for at least this season and next. Potential teams that could be trading partners include Milwaukee (Dan Gadzuric), Memphis (Marko Jaric), the Clippers (Sebastian Telfair or a few others if they’re super-close to having max space), Oklahoma City (Nenad Krstic or Nick Collison), Philadelphia (Samuel Dalembert), or the mighty Knickerbockers (Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries). The crown jewel of possibilities is the Knicks. If they are willing to give up Danilo Gallinari, otherwise known as the perfect Nellie Ball 4, for getting rid of Eddy Curry’s contract it would be a gigantic move for the franchise that also makes sense for the Knicks, especially if the Warriors add in a little more in terms of assets.
With the 2010-centric trades as one major option for improving the team, the other involves non-expiring talent the team already has. We know Corey Maggette has a contract that will be incredibly hard to move in the short term because of its size and length, especially in today’s NBA economy. However, there is a team that provides a fascinating trade opportunity, and that is the New Orleans Hornets. No, I’m not suggesting a trade that gets CP3 in the Bay (though I would do any and every trade that brings him here)- the target here is Peja Stojakovic. The Hornets have an interesting brand of cap hell because of the nature of the luxury tax- a trade that saves them a few million in cap space this season could save them substantially more if it moves them under the tax thanks to the revenue sharing benefits. Coupling that with the 125% rule opens up some credible possibilities for saving money in the immediate if the contracts are high enough. As such, a deal built around Maggette for Stojakovic could actually make fiscal sense for New Orleans if it could meaningfully keep them under the tax for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. The selling point for the Warriors is that the only Warriors under contract for 2011-2012 would be Monta ($11M), Biedrins ($9M), Curry (rookie deal), Randolph (rookie deal), Turiaf’s player option if he takes it, draft picks, and whichever current players they choose to retain. In all likelihood, that team has cap space and a nice financial situation since Biedrins and Monta are both on flat contracts. For the Warriors, this also has the benefit of decreasing the total salary on the books for any potential ownership change while still not putting the team over the tax- it only takes away space they weren’t going to have anyway for 2010. Plus, Peja has the benefit of being a good fit for spot minutes for the life of his contract without hamstringing decisions on other players in both the short and long-term, paralleling the niche for Vladmir Radmanovic.
The other important factor here is that the Warriors have the resources to pull a massive quantity for quality trade during the offseason should the opportunity present itself- players like Biedrins, Kelenna, and Turiaf hold solid value in Oakland and around the NBA, so while deals that concentrate value are not really possible during the season because of roster spot limitations (god bless the 8-for-1 in-season trade proposals though), they are absolutely possible in an off-season when teams are looking to add guys on reasonable deals. It is nearly impossible to speculate who could be available down the road fit for the holes the Warriors have and will have, but they can continue to work to have the flexibility to be in the mix when an undervalued player becomes available, like the Lakers were before the Pau Gasol trade, Portland was before they needed to extend Brandon Roy/Aldridge, and OKC has continued to be in order to bilk picks out of teams.
In the end, what Friday’s game (coupled with Tuesday’s surprising win in Dallas over Coach Nelson’s favorite owner) showed us is that this team already has a solid amount of the core pieces in place to be a team worth watching in May a few seasons from now. For the time being, it’s high time we took some solace in that and hope that Ellis, Randolph, Curry, Morrow, Biedrins, and the rest work hard to grow their games and that management works even harder to pursue every possible avenue that can make this team more competitive, particularly those which capitalize on teams that are willing to sacrifice talent to gain financial flexibility for next season.
As a little perk for those of you who read this far, I’m going to include what I wrote at the end of the simply disastrous first quarter against the Blazers. I have never written an obituary for a game in progress, and the rest of the game showed why it’s never a good idea. Regardless, here it is, exactly as I left it after the first quarter:
One year and two days ago, I sat in the Oracle and watched the Warriors and Blazers go at it. That game was marked by the first home offensive explosion for Anthony Morrow (25 points on 8-12 shooting after having scored 37 at Staples against the Clippers the previous game) and what ended up being the best statistical game of Greg Oden’s rookie season (22 points, 10 boards, and 2 blocks). In the last year- heck, in the last week- both teams have gone through some pretty substantial changes and have been hit pretty hard by the injury bug. Each of those played a substantial factor in tonight’s game. For the Warriors, the biggest change was that the team has less than a skeleton crew active, having to bring up a player from the D-League. Furthermore, the injuries were at exactly the wrong spots for this Portland team: Biedrins, Turiaf, Kelenna, and Bell each could have been incredibly useful tonight. Si vous lisez ces lignes c'est peut être que vous avez lu l'article en entier ?? franchement j'en reviens pas! : )On the other hand, the Blazers’ injuries at the small forward spot may have had a small effect on their margin of victory, but not the outcome itself. |
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